All eyes on Colangelo, Bargnani

Basketball Betting Lines

07/15/2010 - Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With a hot summer in full swing, it's no surprise that Bryan Colangelo has been busy working up a sweat.

After sending Chris Bosh to the Miami Heat in a sign-and-trade deal that netted the Toronto Raptors two first round draft picks and a trade exception, Colangelo elected against rebuilding with the hopes of remaining competitive this upcoming season.

The 2010 season is expected to be challenging for a Raptors team that has failed to make the postseason two years running and will be without the services of Bosh, its franchise-leading scorer and five-time all-star, for the first time in seven years.

However, Colangelo is still focused on the now, as his competitive nature thrives on getting back to the playoffs, rather than rebuilding.

The trade exception is worth an approximate $14.5 million and could prove to be the most important asset the Raptors possess moving forward. The Raptors president and GM continued to reshape his roster following Bosh's departure to South Beach, and even managed to find a suitor in the Phoenix Suns for the disgruntled Hedo Turkoglu; a trade that was originally supposed to be part of a three-way deal involving the Charlotte Bobcats.

In return, the Raptors received combo-guard Leandro Barbosa and power forward Dwayne Jones from Phoenix. Colangelo has familiarity with Barbosa dating back to his days as general manager of Phoenix, as he acquired the seven-year veteran in a 2003 draft day deal with the San Antonio Spurs.

Barbosa averaged 9.5 points per games with the Suns last season but missed 37 games due to a nagging wrist injury that required surgery in January. Since winning the Sixth Man of the Year award in 2007, Barbosa's numbers have slipped but he does add some much-needed quickness to Toronto, as well as another player who can slash and handle the ball. The biggest gain in this deal for the Raptors, however, is being able to wipe their hands clean of Turkoglu's long-term and albatross-like contract.

Turkoglu had a disappointing year with the Raptors after signing a five-year, $53 million deal with the club last summer, averaging 11.3 points per game for his lowest total since the 2003-2004 season. He then voiced his displeasure about Toronto to a Turkish media outlet earlier in the offseason, vowing that he no longer wished to be a member of the organization. The 31-year-old forward would later retract the statements, but the damage left Colangelo with no choice but to test the market for the 10-year veteran.

Colangelo will need to stay active, as he is now temporarily 'stuck' with Jose Calderon and Reggie Evans, after a deal for Tyson Chandler fell apart, and has the trade exception from the Heat he can use in a future deal.

Until the Raptors shore up their frontcourt, which was clearly a point of interest for Colangelo by targeting Diaw and Chandler, the club will be working in a young mix of forwards to the rotation, including Ed Davis, the Raptors 2010 first-round draft pick. Linas Kleiza could also become a rotation player for the Raptors after the team signed him to an offer sheet last week following a stint in Greece.

The Denver Nuggets, who retain Kleiza's rights, aren't expected to match the offer after using their mid-level exception to acquire Al Harrington, clearing the way for the Raptors to land the 24-year-old European. Kleiza spent the first four years of his career with the Nuggets, averaging a career-best 11.1 points-per game in the 2007-2008 season.

The success of Colangelo's offseason makeover will largely hinge on the ability of Andrea Bargnani to continue developing. The path is now set for Bargnani to become the next franchise player of this Raptors squad, and it's his upside that makes him such an intriguing option.

Colangelo certainly sees it, as he inked the Italian to a 5-year, $50 million contract last summer. He's the most gifted offensive player on the team, and can score from the inside and out.

Much of the criticism directed at Bargnani ensued following his disappointing sophomore season, which carried over to the first half of his third year in the league. Since then, Bargnani has proved to be a formidable sidekick to former Raptor Bosh on the offensive end, as the two were able to extend defenses with their exceptionally strong shooting.

Bargnani averaged career-highs with 17.4 points-per-game, 6.2 rebounds and 1.4 blocks, also leading the team in three-pointers made with 121.

The firing of Sam Mitchell and hiring of Jay Triano in 2008 has had positive impact on Bargnani's production. Mitchell was quick to remove Bargnani for defensive lapses and bury him on the bench for long stretches during his time as head coach in Toronto, but Triano elected to go another route with the young big man, allowing him on many nights to fight through defensive blunders, while rewarding him for his strong play offensively.

Patience proved to be positive for the Raptors in certain respects, as the 24- year-old turned into a solid one-on-one defender in the post last season, where his career-best mark of 1.4 blocks per game was good for 11th best among Eastern Conference players.

The Raptors have a young nucleus centered around Bargnani and the improvements are not only going to have to come from offseason acquisitions but also from within, where DeMar DeRozan will be one of those players Triano looks upon to elevate his game.

Bargnani is Colangelo's chosen one, the clear cut 'guy' on this team, who may have a solid enough supporting cast to flourish in this new found role. The fans may be reluctant passing the 'franchise' tag to Bargnani but as he enters his fifth season and first without Bosh, the timing couldn't be better.

Who knows, maybe Colangelo is on to something and the Raptors will actually produce a franchise player that can help the team win something in the future.

The time is now for Bargnani to prove he's not a bust after being drafted No.1 overall in 2006.

Whether he is ready or not, the success of this club is now resting on his shoulders.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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Super Bowl 2009 Betting

Super Bowl 2009 Betting propositions

Underdog bettors love the Super Bowl and, history suggests, the underdogs love them back. And the big dogs bite harder.

Even so, there is a warning in store for Super Bowl gamblers who must love dogs: The Arizona Cardinals Super Bowl betting lines might not be enough of a Cinderella to make it worth your while.

Although the Cardinals were widely panned as one of the worst division winners and least playoff-worthy teams in recent memory, their trip to Super Bowl XLIII Jan. 31 in Tampa against the Pittsburgh Steelers Super Bowl betting lines comes with a little more respect from the oddsmakers than you might imagine. They are a 7-point underdog at most sports books.

If you count yourself among those who covet the big dog in the big game, this isn’t exactly great news. You should have been hoping for more points. This is because the facts show that the bigger the dog, the better the bet in the Super Bowl.

Case in point: Over the past 13 seasons, double-figure underdogs in the Super Bowl are 4-0-1 ATS and have won the past three outright. In fact, the last double-digit chalk to do the deed for bettors was the 1995 San Francisco 49ers, who managed to beat the astounding 19-point spot afforded backers of the San Diego Chargers in the 49-26 romp in Super Bowl XXIX.

By contrast, 7-point favorites are 2-1-1 ATS in the same span, the last such contest resulting a cover grinded out by the Colts in their 29-17 win over the Bears two seasons ago in Super Bowl XLI.

In 2004, the Patriots failed to cover the number in their 32-29 triumph over the Carolina Panthers in Super Bowl props while the Rams and Titans gave everyone a refund in 2000 after the Rams posted a 23-16 win as a seven-point favorite.

So while Arizona’s run has included impressive upsets as a 10-point road underdog to the Carolina Panthers and Sunday’s 32-25 win in the NFC championship game to the 4-point favored Philadelphia Eagles, their long-shot story lacks a bit of the David vs. Goliath storyline of past Super Bowl underdogs.

While the seven-point spread represents a significant gap in the perception of strength between the two teams, it is far from monumental. For example, last season the Giants were the wild-card afterthought turned road-warrior buzzsaw, with stunning wins over the Buccaneers, Cowboys and Packers to earn their place in the Super Bowl.

There, they played spoiler to New England’s bid to become the first 19-0 team in NFL history and cemented their place in sports betting lore with a 17-14 win as a 12.5-point underdog.

In other words, the Cardinals appear to have their work cut out for them as a mid-range underdog. But in homage to the spread beaters who have come before them, here is a brief look back at recent colossal upsets in the Super Bowl:

SB XLII -- 2008 -- New York Giants 17, New England Patriots 14 (Giants +12.5) – Eli Manning’s 13-yard touchdown pass to Plaxico Burress in the final minute clinched the historic upset for the Giants, who used a masterful defensive plan to slow down Tom Brady and the previously undefeated New England Patriots.

XXXVI -- 2002 -- Patriots 20, Rams 17 (Patriots +14) – This was the coming out party for the aforementioned Brady, who went from obscure sixth-round draft pick to Super Bowl hero in one fell swoop. He led the game-winning drive in the final minute – eschewing analyst John Madden’s advice to take a knee and play for overtime – leading to Adam Vinatieri’s memorable 48-yard field goal that split the uprights as time expired.

XXXII 1998 Broncos 31, Packers 24 (Denver +12) – The first of John Elway’s two consecutive Super Bowl titles to put an end to his Hall of Fame career was an upset for the ages. The Broncos used the determination of Elway and a 157-yard, three-touchdown performance from Terrell Davis to turn back Brett Favre and the heavily favored Packers.

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